Estudo Probabilístico para Quantificação das Perdas Técnicas e da Capacidade de Hospedagem de Sistemas Fotovoltaicos Distribuídos sob Condições Climáticas Variáveis em RDBTs

Abstract

The increasing connection of Distributed Photovoltaic Systems (DPS) in Low Voltage Distribution Networks (LVDNs) imposes technical challenges on utilities, particularly regarding power losses and reverse power flow. In this context, this study presents a probabilistic methodology to assess the power losses resulting from DPS connections and estimate the Hosting Capacity (HC), considering meteorological and temporal uncertainties. The Monte Carlo Method (MCM) and simulations performed in OpenDSS are used to evaluate the summer and winter climate scenarios, with seasonal variations representative of the city of Belém-PA. The results indicate that, in the summer scenario, the penetration of DPS is lower due to the higher solar incidence and the consequent increase in reverse power flow, reaching 23.04% HC. Additionally, the economic analysis of losses may represent high costs for utilities, requiring strategies to mitigate these impacts. Finally, the results prove to be accurate and flexible when compared to methods in the literature, requiring less computational effort.